Why so much anxiety?

June 4, 2025/Business, Regulations/

First of all, you have to understand where I come from. I have a conservative nature to me that all my friends know about. For instance, I’ll play the shot to the center of the green and go for the safe par instead of trying to drop a shot over sand and water directly at the pin that would give me a chance for a birdie. . . . but a miss would give me a bogey or worse like a 6 or 7. . . Give me the safe, conservative shot every time.

Tom Anderson
Funeral Director Daily

I’ll never win the lottery because I’m too conservative to buy a ticket against those odds. And, if I go to Las Vegas — it’s not to put money into the slot machines or gambling tables.

I admit, I’m squeeky conservative – in a non-political way. Today’s column will be a little different as I want to point out that by most analytical numbers the American economy and future look pretty optimisitic. . . . .But, I also sense so many people and businesses seem to also think we’re possibly on the edge of major issues that could turn the economy south.

I don’t ever remember having this feeling before — it seemed like there was always a general sense if America was, economically, moving in the right direction or the wrong direction and our policies were set to exacerbate the good or redirect the wrong. Today, I just don’t know.

Here’s what attorney Joe Concha wrote in an article for Sunday’s Washington Examiner:

“The core inflation numbers released this week show it at just 2.1%, compared to 9.1% under Biden not too long ago. Consumer confidence is at a four-year high. Unemployment is historically low at 4.2%, with private sector jobs soaring. And the GDP is expected to grow at 3.8% in the second quarter, according to the respected Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, far higher than Biden’s average throughout his term.”

At the same time, however, Friday’s Yahoo Finance Morning Briefing had this take on the potential softening of the job market as written by Josh Schafer:

But the story of job hunting in America has been far more bifurcated, masked by these broad figures. Behind the solid headline numbers is a hiring rate hovering near a decade low. So too is the rate at which Americans are quitting their jobs.‌

As Fed Chair Jerome Powell put it on Jan 29, “It’s a low hiring environment. So if you have a job, it’s all good. But if you have to find a job, [the] hiring rates have come down.”‌

It’s yet another tale of two economies, and one that’s hammering a specific group: recent college grads.‌

With the labor market stuck in neutral, the millions of students who walked off the campus quad for the final time this month are facing a challenging situation.‌

The three-month moving average of the unemployment rate for recent graduates aged 22 to 27 currently sits at roughly 5.3%, well above the national average of 4.2%, per Oxford Economics.

“It’s a first sign of hitting a point where the labor market is at a kind of a breaking point,” Indeed economist Cory Stahle told Yahoo Finance. “Things overall are still solid, but the fact that we’re seeing pockets like these younger workers starting to get hit harder is clearly very concerning.”

The story of these workers, why they aren’t finding jobs, and whether or not they eventually will is at the crux of the current US labor market conundrum.‌

“Right now, we’re on a trend where we’re facing a lot of headwinds,” Stahle said. “The labor market is strong, but my prediction right now is some of these headwinds are going to start catching up to us.”

So, at least to me, it is kind of the story of two differing opinions out there. If you own or manage a business you have to be able to figure out which way the economy is going to be going — it does make a difference. I call it “knowing your business health”. And, it also does make a difference on how you live your personal life and what you spend and save.

Between the country’s debt, the new “Big Beautiful Bill” being debated, the tariff wars playing out, and the inflation, or some opinions of a lack of it, there apears to be more unknowns than we have had for a long time. And yet, May 2025 just had the largest stock market value increase since November 2023. Go figure.

Here’s where my conservative bent comes in. If I’m not sure where the economy is heading, I’m pretty reticent to change the way I’m doing business — such as not knowing what the new tax laws will say for accelerated depreciation might make me postpone a building addition. I’m the type that would probably sit back and be more conservative with any cash I have set aside — such as instead of adding properties I would probably be trying to reduce debt with that cash.

In any regard this type of economy — which feels unpredictible to me — is where the great managers make the right decisions. . . and sometimes that means swimming against the tide of conventional thought.

All of these indicators make my head spin and realize how fortunate I am to write on the Death Care profession rather than the economy.

Here are some more weekend articles I found that will give you more to think about: