Cremation has grown to a rate where growth is now “decelerating”

July 24, 2024/Cremation, Products/

CANAofficialLogoOctober2022

It was back in June when the Cremation Association of North America (CANA) issued its 2024 Annual Statistical Report. That report showed as CANA said, “. . . “the national cremation rate has grown steadily and predictably for the last 50 years, indicating that neither the recession nor the pandemic have influenced the growth rate on a national level. After decades of accelerated growth in the United States, CANA now begins to see evidence that the national growth rate is slowing, a common statistical occurrence after the rush of adoption. . . .”

CANA goes on to tell us that cremation continues to be popular and continues to be the #1 disposition method in America. . . However, after such rapid growth there comes a time when the growth slows down and here is what they say about that, “. . .over the past few years the US is entering a “deceleration” period of cremation, much like Canada where the cremation rate has surpassed 75.3% in 2023. This growth rate is now expected to slow—but not to reverse. The US is following the Canadian trend with a 15-year lag indicating that the US national cremation growth rate should exceed 75% as early as 2038.”

CANA also predicts “that cremation rates will continue to rise until a projected plateau of around 80%. . . . .By 2033, CANA research predicts the cremation rate in all states will reach or exceed 50% with the national rate surpassing 70%.

Here is the information that CANA makes public in their 2024 Annual Statistical Report which includes some information on certain state’s rate of growth, the speed and velocity of growth trends, and demographic traits of the cremation customer.

Here is an article from CANA titled “State Cremation Rate Milestones”. It includes information on individual state’s cremation growth rates as well as information on the cremation S-Curve which gives an indication that cremation across North America is reaching, or has reached its deceleration phase.

Tom Anderson
Funeral Director Daily

Funeral Director Daily take: I like to look at all of the statistics presented and not only look on them for insight into how cremation has, and is, growing, but also like to look into the history and see how that might bear on our profession moving forward.

The S-Curve phenomena is very interesting to me as you look at it on how the consumer accepts a new product or service over time. CANA indicates that each product or service, such as cremation has a definite growth pattern. The pattern falls into the following stages:

Early Period
Early Adoption
Rapid Growth
Deceleration
Plateau

It’s interesting to note that once a product or service reaches a certain level of usage among consumers it will plateau. It appears that “plateau” for cremation may be at about 80% of all dispositions. As noted in the headline of this article, CANA believes that we are probably in the “Deceleration” of growth level at present.

I also look at those “5 Periods” of growth and wonder if there is a 6th Period that might follow and that would be “Decline”. Think about manufactured caskets — I’m guessing that up until at least the 1850’s every person in America that was buried was either buried in a “Simple pine box” or with no outer case at all. . . . The manufacturing of caskets started taking place in America somewhere between 1850 and 1900 and I’m guessing that all 5 Periods have been reached and we are now either in the “Plateau” period or maybe even a “Decline” period.

Another thought I have is what product in the funeral or entire Death Care world would at this time be in a period that “Rapid Growth” may be coming? CANA points out that the periods before “Rapid Growth” in cremation took 96 years — from the first cremation in 1876 to the country reaching a 5% cremation rate in 1972. . . . So, our next rapid growth item is probably out there and in one of the first two phases right now.

Is that product or service in that category “Direct Cremation with No Services”. . . . or it could be in what I call the “Cremation After Market” which would include such items as cremation jewelry, solidified remains such as Parting Stone, or cremation placement options such as Better Place Forests. It also could be a disposition method such as alkaline hydrolysis and/or natural organic reduction. . . . it’s hard to know, but if you watch you might see a trend developing which certainly would help your business if you do identify that trend before others.

What about society in general?. . . What might be some of the current adoptions that could turn into rapid growth? I came across this article from the International Energy Agency that surprised me about the rising adoption world-wide of electric vehicles (EV). Do you see a trend?

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