Somebody finally said it, “Industry revenue for Death Care is estimated to drop”

July 23, 2026/Business, Finance/

Over the years that I owned and operated a funeral home I saw an increasing cremation percentage almost every year. And, like most funeral homes, my charges for traditional burial were more than my charges for any type of cremation.

If one did not increase pricing, that dynamic in itself would lead to a business that has a lower-revenue-per-case dynamic progression because you are replacing higher-priced traditional funerals with lower-price point cremations. Increasing prices periodically can arrest that symptom for some time, but at some point you risk inflating your traditional funeral price to a point that it gets cost prohibitive for many families who then change to a lower-priced alternative. . . more than likely cremation.

Or, regardless of your pricing, cremation just becomes the overwhelming choice of the consumer and your revenue-per-case starts falling. Total revenue can continue to grow if you add market share or acquire another location. . . .but at some point in time, if everyone is choosing lower-priced services, total revenue will also fall.

For 65 years, since cremation was the choice of 3% of consumers in 1960 to 2025 when cremation choice is pushing a 65% market share among disposition services, the total revenue for Death Care in America has continued to rise every year. My definition being that that “Total Revenue” means simply the amount of money Americans spend on their total Death Care expenditures.

In that time period we have went from 1.7 million deaths per year in 1960 to over 3 million deaths per year in 2025. It’s my opinion that “almost doubling of deaths” in the growing American population coupled with the periodic price increases of funeral businesses has continued to increase the total spend on Death Care even while we have turned from a higher-priced traditional funeral nation to a lower-priced cremation choice nation.

However, one of the world’s most highly respected business analyst companies, now envisions that “total revenue growth” in Death Care to come to a stop. I recently came across the following quote in this recent article pertaining to funeral service providers adapting to changing needs of the consumer:

“IBISWorld found that industry revenue for funeral services is estimated to drop to $23.9 billion over five years with a Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 3.3%. With this loss in revenue, funeral service providers must change how things are done. “

The article also provided this link which goes to an advertising teaser for IBISWorld which provides this quote from one of their analysts (bold provided by Funeral Director Daily):

“Funeral homes currently face a challenging environment, marked by a noticeable drop in revenue as national mortality rates revert to long-term averages. . . . Recent figures from the CDC reveal a drop in age-adjusted death rates, which directly translates to fewer services and greater financial pressure. Consequently, many funeral homes are reevaluating their strategies, exploring new service offerings and strengthening community ties to preserve their market share. As revenue growth eases from prior peaks, businesses that diversify—such as by adding grief counseling or digital memorial options—can position themselves to withstand ongoing competition and changing consumer demand. Industry revenue is estimated to drop at a CAGR of 3.3% to $23.9 billion over five years, including a projected 0.4% decrease in 2026.”

Continuing through that advertising message and teaser for IBISWorld, one finds that the entire report and analysis on the Death Care profession is available from IBISWorld for $2000.

Tom Anderson
Funeral Director Daily

Funeral Director Daily take: As we see lower priced services become the norm in Death Care, I don’t think that this prediction of less total revenue, based on their analysis, is a surprise from IBISWorld. The question really becomes, as a business of Death Care, how do I respond to that potential reality?

I think it is a really good time to look at the financial situation of your business and put together three, five, and ten year plans for your operation. The plan should be based on solid pricing data, consumer choice data, expenses data, and the demographics of the community you operate in. And one should be looking at the actual results and how they compare to your plan at least every quarter.

If you are not sure how to do this, the experts at Johnson Consulting Group would be a first-call to ask for help. You can learn more about them here.

My experience with IBISWorld: I knew little of IBISWorld and their incredible analysis teams until I became a member of the Board of Regents at the University of Minnesota. I eventually learned that the University, through our Carlson School of Management, had a subscription for those enrolled in our business school. . . . a subscription which also applied to board members.

I loved looking through their analysis of all kinds of businesses, especially the funeral services division. I found that their publication was spot on with so many of the beliefs I had about different Death Care businesses.

I no longer have access to these reports and choose not to pay for them on my own. However, if you are interested in their reports, here’s what IBISWorld says about their latest funeral services report:

“IBISWorld’s research coverage on the Funeral Services industry in the United States includes market sizing, forecasting, data and analysis from 2016-2031. The most recent publication was released February 2026.”

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