The Question: “How does the economy look for 2026?” , The Answer: “Depends on who you ask?”

December 26, 2025/Finance/

The overall economy and, more importantly, the way consumers and Death Care clientele feel about their individual situations has some effect on purchases of Death Care products and services– both Pre-Need and At-Need. It’s just common sense that the better a consumer feels about their own financial situation, the more apt they are to spend.

For 2025 it appears that when all the dust settles, according to this publication from the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, that the United States economy will have grown at a 1.9% clip as compared to a predicted 2.1% rate one year ago. So from that perspective, growth has been less than anticipated.

In addition, the same publication notes that inflation will probably check in at an annual 2025 growth rate of 2.8% — which is higher than predicted one year ago. . . meaning that the “deceleration of inflation” is slower than those experts thought it would be.

Again, according to that same article, the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank reports that the predicted consensus of the experts for Growth Domestic Product (GDP) for 2026 is again 1.9% and the inflation rate is predicted to remain a stubborn 2.9% for 2026.

Other Opinions — President Trump and others expect GDP to rise faster than that and also they expect to get a better check on inflation than the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank predicts for 2026. President Trump and some in his cabinet have been speculating that GDP could increase at a robust 4.0% + number for 2026 once the effects of Congress’ Big Beautiful Bill and its tax cuts come into effect.

Pointing to some evidence of that, this recent article from Bloomberg states that the U.S. economy expanded by 4.3% in the 3rd Quarter and has a more positive outlook. Here are some quotes from that article:

“The US economy expanded in the third quarter at the fastest pace in two years, bolstered by resilient consumer and business spending and calmer trade policies.”

“Despite some evidence of softer consumer spending in the fourth quarter, “the floor for the economy is still strong,” said Ben Ayers, a senior economist at Nationwide. “We are optimistic that the economy will accelerate in 2026.”

“Consumer spending — the main growth engine of the economy — advanced at a 3.5% annualized pace (based on the quarter). That reflected solid outlays on services, including health care and international travel. Spending on motor vehicles fell. However, a softer labor market and high cost of living represent hurdles for the consumer in 2026.”

“Growth held firm in 3Q. We expect full-year growth was dented by the government shutdown, but we expect a much stronger economy in 2026.”

Funeral Director Daily take: So there you have it. Two differing scenarios.

Tom Anderson
Funeral Director Daily

From my point of view there is not a whole lot those of us in the Death Care sector can do about changing the direction of Gross National Product and Inflation. Our businesses are generally downstream from the market makers in those indexes.

What we can do is “anticipate and react” to the conditions coming our way. How you do that cannot generate more demand for our services (deaths) but it can shift focus to your brand (creating more market share) and products that can be more profitable than other products.

For instance, if you sense a downward shift in the economy, one counter-intuitive move might be to increase advertising and promotion of your products and services as it might take a larger caseload to generate the same profits in a situation where revenue per case is now declining.

There is no exact science to this formula, but the more you are aware of what is happening around you the better you will be in anticipating and reacting to take advantage of the situation.

Here’s a few more predictions on the Economy for 2026: