As you read this today I will soon or already have given a presentation at the Cremation Association of North America (CANA) International Convention.  I was asked to speak on the Fads, Trends, and Traditions of Death Care from the historical past and looking into the future into what may come.

 

Looking into the past is a fairly simple task because history has already been written. . . . .Looking into the future — well that’s a little different situation and one can only try to do so by using history and also looking into what trends that may be unfolding. . . . . Like the hula hoop, pet rocks, or Beanie Babies, fads and trends don’t make traditions and separating fads from future traditions is the difficult part.

 

I finished my presentation preparation for the CANA a month ago, but like the weather, circumstances change and give me more to think about.

 

The Premise:  Ever since I started in mortuary school and entered the Death Care workforce in 1980 there has been talk of the bonanza of deaths that will come from the deaths of the Baby Boom generation.  As you look at the graph below you will notice that the United States passed the 3 million annual deaths during the pandemic year of 2020.

 

As you can see from the graph, the year I entered the workforce, 1980, there was about 2.0 million deaths in the United States.  Today in 2026, after falling from the pandemic peak, it is expected that there will be about 3.1 million deaths in the country.

 

As we move forward, depending on who you listen to, the United States will probably see between 3.4 million and 3.6 million deaths annually by 2040 and about 4.0 million deaths by 2050.  That could mean a 25-30% increase in Death Care services usage by 2050.

 

The premise has always been that funeral homes will be great investments and businesses as the number of deaths increase.  That argument is one that has been used for years in bringing equity into the business of the acquisition companies.   In essence it shows the growth potential of the funeral homes in a business that has traditionally had high barriers to entry.

 

 

 

Interesting items of knowledge in just the last month:  I’m always on the lookout for knowledge about the Death Care profession and industry and for my work with Funeral Director Daily I scour news reports on the business universe of Death Care.  Here is a few items that came to light for me in just the past month.

 

• IbisWorld:  This highly respected business information system has predicted a 3.3% annual (for the next five years) decline in “Death Care Revenues” beginning in 2026.  Here is a recent article that Funeral Director Daily published on that prediction.

 

• Service Corporation International’s CEO Thomas Ryan commenting in the company’s 2nd Quarter 2026 Earnings Release:  “Our funeral segment benefited from a continued strong average revenue per service which more than offset a better-than-expected 1% decline in funeral services performed.”

 

• Carriage Services’ CEO Carlos Quezada commenting in the company’s 2nd Quarter 2026 Earnings Release:  “Against the backdrop of lower national mortality trends that emerged earlier this year, resulting in a 3.5% decline in our at-need volume compared with the second quarter of 2025. . “

 

• Matthews International’s CEO Jospeh C. Bartolacci commenting in the company’s fiscal year 3rd Quarter 2026 Earnings Release:  “Sales volumes of caskets and cemetery memorials continued to be a headwind in the quarter due to lower estimated U.S. casketed deaths, which was compounded by escalating input costs.”

 

•  Carriage Services’ CEO Carlos Quezada in response to a question about different markets during the company’s 2Q2026 Earnings Call with stock analysts:  “One thing that I could tell you stands out was Florida, but Florida is highly cremation. There’s a lot of direct cremation businesses that are established in Florida, and they continue to pop up more and more in that state. We haven’t lost market share, but we do see the most significant volume decline from a state perspective. Florida would be one.” 

 

• Dean Lambley CEO of Great Britain’s Pure Cremation (76,000 cases annually):  “More and more of those decisions have already been made through pre-paid plans, and the majority are for direct cremation. That’s a fundamental shift in where future revenue will flow. Every funeral plan sold today represents future business that is no longer up for grabs.” . . . . Lambley also stated that 50% of Great Britain deaths will result in “Direct Cremation” by 2035.  Here’s a recent Funeral Director Daily article on these comments.

 

The New Math —  So, a month of interesting news does not make a trend or a tradition.  However, I find these recent comments by these “in the know” executives pretty interesting.  The “4 million annual” death boon was being talked about when traditional funeral homes were the choice of most consumers.  That may not be the case forever.

 

And, people have been moving to different areas of the country. . . . ,So, does a large investment in a big, traditional funeral home mean more services and profits today or does it portend a possible decline in business, and a tougher road to profitability, as more and more consumers choose other options for Death Care, possibly including natural organic reduction and green funerals?

 

Finally, the big “surge” in deaths has been talked about since the 1980’s when traditional casketed funerals were over 80% of the business funeral homes conducted.  What will it mean for the Death Care business to have 4 million deaths. . . . .but in an environment where the retail price of what is chosen may only be 50%, or less, of what a traditional casketed funeral is expected to be?

 

Death Care is not a “trending” business. . . .it is an “evolving” business and the strategies to draw business to your firm, regardless of what that firm specializes in, needs to have a long-term perspective on how you will get from today’s “Point A” to 2050’s “Point B”.  And, I think it is never to early to start to look, study, theorize, and begin the planning stages for your evolution.

 

I’ve got a pretty open mind about what may be happening in Death Care and I’m pretty certain that the people that can catch the current trends that eventually evolve into traditions will prosper and those who think things will be the same forever might have a little more difficult time of it.

 

More news from the world of Death Care: 

• Here’s why there is a pyramid in SLC — and why it is filled with mummified pets.  Salt Lake City Tribune (UT)
• Bronx Funeral Home wins “Best Funeral Home in the Bronx” for second consecutive year — recognized for value and compassionate care.  Cision PR Web
• How an old cemetery disappeared beneath a city centre.  BBC News (Great Britain)

 

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